https://www.zakzak.co.jp/eco/news/190802/ecn1908020004-n1.html?ownedref=not%20set_not%20set_newsTop
2019.8.2 (Sankei Shimbun Special Press, Hideo Tamura)
Losing trust for a moment, regaining it for a lifetime
[White country excluded]
Subtitle setting-Subtitle (1)-Automatic translation-Language
Money is known as real " White Country Exclusion ".
... Korea's truth The economy is broken simply
by being "downgraded" to the treatment of the general world ?
The Japanese government
normalizes export control procedures for 3 semiconductor materials
in Korea in early July .
Subsequently, on August 2,
the Cabinet decided to amend the decree to exclude Korea
from the " White Country ",
which favors and simplifies export control involving security.
If the country is no longer in White Country,
it will be individually reviewed whether there is a fear of military diversion
for a wide range of items such as machine tools,
carbon fiber, automobiles, and applications and purposes of technology.
However ,
it is far from being embarrassed to treat Korea
as being treated as China and Russia.
The reaction is just like an agonizing cries,
as the Korean side does not correct the uncertainty
of Korea's own export control .
" Representatives of the Korean Party,"
If Japan excludes Korea from White Korea, it is a catastrophe ".
(July 30, Chuo Daily Japanese Electronic Edition),
“If Japan takes Korea out of White Country, about 1,100 items exported to Korea that are likely to be diverted to weapons will be subject to individual permits from comprehensive permits.
Korea have expected to tighten
from items that will soon hit the Korean economy. "
(Similar, yonhap news)
Why does Korea have a sense of crisis so far?
It can not be understood very much
by saying "an eccentric anti-Japanese feeling" alone.
In fact,
Japan has a financial vulnerability that only fears
that the economy will be destroyed
if it is simply downgraded to the level of a general country .
The Moon Jae-in administration and the Korean media will be afraid
that Japan's slight strengthening of export control may be just the weak point.
For details, please refer to the essay “ Economic failure in Japan ”
in the special issue “On the verge of the collapse of Korea”
in the monthly issue on September 1st released on August 1,
but watch the Korean stock and foreign exchange market. Just do it.
Korean stock and won against dollar
July 1, 2019 = 100
Red line = Korea Information Technology (IT) stock index (left scale)
Blue line = Korea stock index (left scale)
Naka-white line = ₩ against the dollar (right scale)
The graph follows the trend of the Korean stock price index
and the information technology (IT) stock index
and the currency won against the dollar since July 1st.
The Korean stock market is led by IT companies led by Samsung Electronics.
The stock price fell sharply in early July
due to the export control normalization shock
of 3 items including hydrogen fluoride gas in Japan,
and the won was also sold.
The share price of the IT industry,
which supports the Korean economy such as semiconductors,
is expected to be hit hard,
but the stock price has soon turned around and turned upward.
Leading companies such as Samsung and SK Hynix
If Japan's export examination is forced to become normal,
Global oversupply of semiconductor memory is mitigated,
It is because there was
a speculation that market conditions would improve.
However,
IT stocks have fallen sharply
because things like seldom go as one wishes so far,
and a wide range of Korean companies have been hampered
in acquiring Japanese products and technologies du
e to the “white country exclusion”.
Uncertainty has spread to all stocks
and the won market price due to excessive reaction.
The weak won is essentially a factor that boosts stock prices
as it increases Korea's export competitiveness , but it does not.
More than 50% of Korea's stock market capitalization comes
from fast-paced foreign portfolio investment .
Korea relies on foreign speculative money
to revive the nightmare
of the Asian currency crisis encountered in 1997-98.
(And, this time, neither Japan nor the United States will help Korea .)
South Korea's July exports fell 11 %
to $ 46.14 billion for eight consecutive months
http://www.chosunonline.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/08/02/2019080280004.html
2019/08/02
Korea announced that exports in July were $ 46.14 billion,
down 11 % from the same month last year
The semiconductor , the largest export item,
was in recession , and exports to the US also declined .
It has been negative for eight consecutive months since December 2018 ,
and the decline is still in the double- digit range
Korea's Ministry of Industry,
Trade and Resources announced yesterday
that exports in July were $ 46.14 billion,
down 11 % from the same month last year .
It has been negative for eight consecutive months
since last December (down 1.7 %),
and the decline has shrunk from June (down 13.7 %),
but it is still in the double digit range .
July imports also fell 2.7 percent to $ 43.7 billion.
The decline in exports is due to the semiconductor industry,
the largest export item, having been in recession
due to the US-China trade dispute,
and the only booming economy in the US also slowed its growth
and exports to the US declined.
South Korea's exports to the US have shown 420 % growth until May this year,
but it turned negative from June and fell 0.7 % in July .
In addition, exports of three semiconductor materials to Korea in Japan,
which began from the last month ,
will continue to be standardized for a long time,
and exclusions from the white list
( strategic materials examination eligible countries )
will be decided on the 2nd. It is feared that it will continue.
Korea imports materials and parts made in Japan,
and has an industrial structure
that produces and exports intermediate goods and finished products.
Export declines are expected to continue until the end of the year.
The Korean government official
"Because exports were strong last year,
may not continue to be negative compared
to the same month last year until November ?"
He talked.
The main cause of the slumping exports was
the decline in unit prices of semiconductors, the main export item.
Last month's semiconductor exports increased 14.9 % on a volume basis,
but fell 28.1 % on a value basis as unit prices fell 37.7 % .
Due to the fall in oil prices,
petrochemical products decreased 12.4 % ,
exports of petroleum products decreased 10.5 % each.
Exports of automobiles and home appliances increased by 21.6 % and 2.2 %,
respectively.
The outlook of foreign investment banks on Korean exports is also dark .
According to a report released
by the International Financial Center on July 23 , Bank of America
"Tensions in the trade field
between Korea and Japan may delay export recovery"
And Barclays
"There is a possibility that semiconductor exports may improve
in the short term due to the last-minute demand for uncertainty,
but if it is not supported by the final demand,
it may worsen again in the 10-Dec period."
Pointed out.
Imports from Japan decreased
by 9.4 % in July from the same month last year.
By item, major import items
such as facilities for semiconductor production (down 2.2 %),
other fine chemical products (down 39.4 %),
and other synthetic resins (down 4.2 %) were all in the same row .
Mr. Park Tae-sung, Director of Trade and Investment Department,
Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources at the press
"The impact on Korea's exports after the announcement
of Japan's export restrictions on July 1 seems to be limited at this point,
but if the export restrictions on three items continue
and the whitelist exclusion is decided,
Korea's exports and the world Negative impact on supply chain "
Pointed out.