AI 株価予測 20250307の状況
8306MUFG Stock Price AI Forecast -20250307

前週金曜日は米株、日本株ともネックラインまで下ヒゲをつけて戻したものの、週明け、日米とも株価はネックラインで反落。GDPNowのマイナス２．８％、ＡＤＰ雇用は減退、チャレンジャー人員削減は大幅に拡大、トランプの関税大幅強化のなか、株価はさらに下落し、金曜日には日米とも再び大きな下ヒゲを付けて一段下のネックラインで止まった。Last Friday, both U.S. and Japanese stocks rebounded after forming lower wicks down to the neckline. However, at the beginning of the week, stock prices in both countries reversed at the neckline. With GDPNow showing -2.8%, ADP employment weakening, Challenger job cuts expanding significantly, and Trump's sharp tariff hikes, stock prices continued to decline. By Friday, both U.S. and Japanese stocks had once again formed large lower wicks, stopping at a lower neckline.

週末の米国の非農業部門雇用と、失業率は横ばい。正規雇用から非正規雇用への移転が顕著で、景気が回復基調であるとは言えない状況。Over the weekend, U.S. nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate remained flat. A notable shift from full-time to part-time employment indicates that the economy cannot be considered to be on a recovery trend.

海外投資家は日本株を６０００億円売り越す一方、個人投資家が５０００億円買うという、株価下落局面のパターン。今週はチャート的には底を示しているため反発が予想されるが、その後はさらに大きな下落が待っていそう。Foreign investors net sold 600 billion yen of Japanese stocks, while individual investors net bought 500 billion yen, a typical pattern during a market downturn. Technically, the chart suggests a bottoming out, which could lead to a rebound this week, but a larger decline is likely to follow.

現状、総投資限度の１／４程度の配当重視（配当３．１％平均）のポジション損益は、若干マイナス。MUFG（３．２１％）、長谷工（４．３１％）、三菱商事（４．０７％）、村田製作所（２．２９％）、トヨタ（３．２３％）、金ＥＴＦ、他。Currently, about one-fourth of the total investment limit is allocated to dividend-focused positions (average yield of 3.1%), but their performance is in the red a bit. Holdings include MUFG (3.21%), Haseko (4.31%), Mitsubishi Corporation (4.07%), Murata Manufacturing (2.29%), Toyota (3.23%), and a gold ETF, among others.

来週は13日水曜日のインフレ率が焦点。

IMMは円買いに転換。IMM switched back to JPY buy.

海外勢は売りが継続、個人が買う悪い展開に。Foreigh investors are selling while Japanese investors are buying. This is not a good pattern.

新値日足は下落。AI予測は日足が下落。週足が上昇。月足は下落。The new daily candlestick is down. AI predictions indicate the daily candlestick will decline, the weekly candlestick will rise, and the monthly candlestick will decline.

メガバンクの上昇は利上げの効果というより、バリュー株の底上げという性格が強い。メガバンクはことごとく一律に上昇してきた。爆上げしたのはメガバンクだけでなく、建設、重工業など、割安に放置されてきたセクターだ。ただ、このまま上がり続けるには無理があり、どこかでメガバンクのように一旦頭を打つだろう。The rise in mega-banks is characterized more by the uplift of value stocks than the effect of interest rate hikes. Mega-banks have uniformly risen, as have sectors such as construction and heavy industries, which have been undervalued. However, it's unlikely that they will continue to rise indefinitely, and at some point, they are likely to experience a downturn, similar to mega-banks.

https://www.mufg.jp/dam/ir/presentation/2022/pdf/slides2303_ja.pdf

米株は、リモートワーク定着による商業用不動産の暴落が、いまだ株式市場に織り込まれていないのが最大の懸念材料。The crash of US commercial real estate due to the establishment of remote work has not yet been factored into the stock market.

根底には中国の不動産崩壊もある。中国マネーの縮小が、世界の商業用不動産の下落に拍車をかける。The underlying factor is also the collapse of Chinese real estate. The reduction of Chinese money will further accelerate the decline of commercial real estate worldwide.

米貸し出し延滞率もコロナ支援金の枯渇に伴い急速に上昇しつつある。The delinquency rate for US lending is also rapidly increasing due to the depletion of COVID relief funds.

米株の急落とともに世界株式が暴落するのも、ここ数カ月以内に起こるだろう。The crash of US stocks will likely lead to a global stock market crash within the next few months.

現状日銀は７００兆円近くの国債を買い入れており、これは国債発行残高の６割近く。このうち６兆円が毎月満期になるため、月額６兆円を買い入れている。このため、月額買入を３兆円に減額すると１年間に３６兆円のQTとなる。全保有額を放出するには２０年近くかかるため、それまでは廃止したと言いながら継続しているYCCが続くことになる。これが国債が売られた背景。 Currently, the Bank of Japan holds nearly 700 trillion yen in government bonds, which is close to 60% of the total government bond issuance. Of this amount, 6 trillion yen matures every month, leading the BOJ to purchase 6 trillion yen monthly. Therefore, reducing the monthly purchases to 3 trillion yen results in a QT of 36 trillion yen annually. It would take nearly 20 years to completely unwind their holdings, so despite announcing the end of yield curve control (YCC), it effectively continues. This is why government bonds are being sold off.

PSAVEは若干持ち直し基調。ドル円は介入開始か。PSAVE shows a slight recovery trend. Could intervention begin with the USD/JPY pair?

QTは一旦停止のようだが、マネーストックは下落基調。QT seems to be on hold, but money stock is declining.

ベースマネーの増大は、地銀に対する政府の無制限支援によるもの。The increase in base money is due to unlimited government support for local banks.

長谷工は下落トレンドから復帰。Haseko showed exit from down-trend.

長谷工の決算はインフレによるコスト高を反映した減益となった。Haseko's financial results showed a decrease in profit, reflecting higher costs due to inflation.

トランプはウクライナ問題の早期解決をプーチンと話し合う予定。ヨーロッパとウクライナは蚊帳の外。最悪の展開が待っている模様。Trump is going to talk Putin on the early resolution of Ukraine problem. Neither Europe nor Ukraine were invited. Worst case scenario is now expected.

米銀株、USTU10とSPX, NKY US Banks, UST10＆SPX, NKY

米国株はサームルール発動により景気後退入りが確実となった。

今後のシナリオとしては、最初の利下げまでは株価は上昇、最初の利下げを境に下落開始となるシナリオ。The upcoming scenario is that stock prices will continue to rise until the first rate cut, after which they will start to decline.